The federal government is making two big moves right now that could have major ripple effects in the commercial real estate world—especially for General Partners (GPs) managing office-heavy portfolios. On one hand, they’re pushing federal employees’ return to office (RTO). On the other, they’re also cutting back on office space, selling off government buildings, and reducing their real estate footprint.
For investors—both GPs who own and manage office buildings and Limited Partners (LPs) who invest in those portfolios—this creates a mix of potential opportunities and risks. Let’s take a look at how this dual strategy could play out.
The Push to Get Federal Workers Back in the Office
One of the government’s big priorities has been getting federal employees back at their desks. The idea is that bringing people back into offices will help revitalize downtown areas, boost local businesses, and improve collaboration within agencies. Cities like Washington, D.C., have been struggling with sluggish economic activity since remote work took off, so in theory, this move should help bring back foot traffic, which is good news for nearby restaurants, retailers, and service businesses.
For GPs with office buildings leased to government tenants, this could look like a win. More employees returning to work means higher utilization of office space, potentially reducing the chances of agencies downsizing their leases. But it’s not that simple. Just because workers are back in the office doesn’t necessarily mean agencies will expand their real estate footprint. In fact, the government is moving in the opposite direction—scaling back office space rather than increasing it.
The Government’s Plan to Shrink Its Real Estate Footprint
At the same time that federal employees are heading back to the office, the government is also offloading office space. The General Services Administration (GSA) has been tasked with selling off more than 500 federal buildings nationwide, including high-profile properties like the Nancy Pelosi Federal Building in San Francisco. The goal? To cut costs, reduce maintenance expenses, and optimize how the government uses its office space.
For GPs, this creates a bit of a mixed bag. On the one hand, it means fewer government tenants in the long run, which could increase vacancies and make it harder to maintain steady cash flow. If a federal agency was one of your anchor tenants and they move out, filling that space with a comparable long-term tenant might be a challenge—especially in an office market that’s already struggling with high vacancies.
On the flip side, some GPs might see opportunity here. With more federal buildings hitting the market, there could be chances to acquire properties at discounted prices, repurpose them, or attract private-sector tenants looking for well-located office space.
What Does This Mean for LPs?
For LPs—who invest in real estate funds and rely on GPs to manage these assets—the key question is: how does this affect returns?
If the return-to-office push leads to stabilized occupancy rates in government-leased buildings, that’s a positive sign. Steady rental income could mean more predictable cash flows for investors. But if the office space reduction trend results in more vacancies and declining property values, that’s where things get tricky. A surplus of empty office buildings could put downward pressure on rental rates, making it harder for GPs to maintain strong returns.
The uncertainty of these policies means LPs need to be extra cautious when evaluating real estate investments. Are GPs taking proactive steps to reduce risk? Are they diversifying tenant mixes so they’re not overly reliant on government leases? These are critical questions investors need to consider.
Looking at Both Sides of the Debate
Like any major policy shift, there are valid arguments on both sides of the equation.
The Case for Returning to the Office: Supporters of the return-to-office mandate argue that it will bring life back to urban centers. More workers in the office means more business for local restaurants, coffee shops, and retail stores, helping cities recover from the economic slowdown caused by remote work.
The Counterpoint: While increased occupancy is great for local businesses, the simultaneous reduction of federal office space could undo those gains. If government agencies are downsizing or exiting leases, landlords could still be left with vacant properties, limiting any real economic boost in the long run.
The Case for Selling Off Federal Buildings: The government sees its office space reduction as a smart financial move. By selling off underutilized buildings, they can cut down on maintenance costs and put that money to better use elsewhere.
The Counterpoint: The problem is that if too many federal buildings hit the market at once, it could lead to an oversupply of office space. More supply means lower property values, which could hurt private real estate investors and GPs trying to lease or sell office buildings at competitive prices.
With so many moving parts, real estate investors need to be strategic in how they respond to these changes. Here are a few key considerations:
- Diversify Tenants: GPs should avoid over-reliance on government tenants and work on attracting a mix of private-sector occupants to maintain stability.
- Consider Adaptive Reuse: Office spaces can be repurposed for other uses—whether that’s converting them into residential units, mixed-use developments, or coworking spaces.
- Stay on Top of Market Trends: Monitoring government policies and real estate market shifts is critical for making informed investment decisions.
- Communicate with LPs: Transparency is key. Keeping investors in the loop about potential risks and the steps being taken to address them builds trust and confidence.
Final Thoughts
The federal government’s approach to office space—pushing employees back to work while simultaneously shrinking its real estate footprint—creates a complex situation for commercial real estate investors. There are potential upsides, like stabilizing office occupancy in key cities, but there are also significant risks, including higher vacancies and declining property values.
For GPs and LPs alike, the key to navigating this uncertainty is being adaptable. Whether that means diversifying tenant bases, repurposing office spaces, or carefully tracking market trends, smart strategies will be essential in making the most of these shifting dynamics.